08 Jul 2017 21:11:30
Eds, bit of a long winded question relating to football in general as opposed to just Liverpool.

The question first.

Where or what direction do you see football going?

The context of the question. there is now so much money in football, sponsorship deals, tv deals etc, football clubs in the higher tier no longer regular supporters, in fact they'd rather tourists coming on match days spending money in club shop.

The cost of transfers is going up and up. the bigger teams have so much money they have the power to let a player sit out the final year of his contract rather than selling for 10,20,30 million.

Lionel messi just signed a €550,000 weekly contract.

I guess what I'm trying to get st is where will all this end? Is the bubble going to burst? Will fans eventually get so marginalised that they'll just turn their back?

Will the tv companies reduce the deals as they aren't making a profit.

Sorry for long winded question, I possibly haven't articulated exactly what I'm trying to say.

Regards

Niall.

{Ed002's Note - I understand the question Niall. This has been discussed before but perhaps a refresh would be helpful and get everybody to think about something else for a while.

It remains very much an on-going issue with regular discussions on the matter between around 16 “elite” European clubs Including three from England) who meet to discuss a variety of issues a couple of times a year. Without going in to too much detail:
(a) A number of clubs take the opportunity to meet and discuss various issues including changes in rules, club versus country issues, television and other media rights, the power of UEFA, exploitation issues for new technology streams, etc.. The meetings were annually but now they happen two and sometimes three times a year. There was a meeting in December – where there was a discussion about the state of FIFA, the situation with UEFA and a so far unpublished claim from a retired referee that the result of a Champions League game was influenced by a third party. These discussions also always turn to the possibility and structure of a breakaway pan European league. Several are ex-G14 clubs, several are not, and some clubs decline involvement in such discussions.
(b) The plan is that at some point a number of clubs would break away from their national leagues and UEFA. They accept that they would be banned from all existing club competition and the players would initially be banned from all FIFA competitions as well, but know that FIFA would be looking to negotiate in any case. It would be the end of UEFA in all probability and UEFA are very aware of this. It would also result in a restructuring of many of the national leagues.
(c) The clubs would renegotiate their television and media rights, rights of distribution via other streams etc..
(d) It remains the greatest fear of UEFA and all major national authorities that one day this will happen – which has resulted in a counter-proposal being drafted by UEFA.
(e) Timing wise, two very prominent clubs want it to happen as soon as possible (2018 – not a chance) and they have the support of a third club - but most are looking at 2022 to 2015 being a good option. A few clubs are looking at 2025 to 2028 and I suspect that could end up as the reality.

There are two counter-proposals to the pan-European breakaway that have partially been backed by UEFA to try and save their own skin. The first proposal is to rename and change the format of the UEFA Champions League to make it an elite closed-shop pan-European league with a fixed number of teams – and these would be the same teams every year and be based on past winners of the Champions League and European Cup and a few (not specified) more. It would then require the restructuring of the Europa League and the possible introduction of a lower-tier European competition again. Although they have yet to flesh out the detail and there is now a major concern that the impetus for this is not coming from Europe, although one major Football Association has given their support and discussions have also been held with the leading clubs from England (Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal). The American backer, Stephen Ross of the Miami Dolphins, has on several occasions requested a meeting with an extant group of sides considering the pan-European breakaway to discuss his proposals. They have yet to respond but having identified the source of much of the funding (and that raising a concern) will wish to discuss it between themselves first. This has dragged on for a year and nothing has happened. However, UEFA are now considering yet another proposal that would see some places in the CL fixed (probably to previous winners) and then see it supplemented by Champions and second place sides each season. This complicates matters again as it means the re-introduction of a third competition or the significant restructuring of the EL. The plan being put to clubs is a summer/preseason tournament that will evolve in to a parallel league, and of course eventually in to a complete breakaway for these clubs. As a first step to all of this, UEFA have negotiated minor changes that will see the four entrants from England, Germany, Spain and Italy enter the existing Champions League group stages without any qualification beyond their National League position (so no entry to qualifying rounds). This has been agreed by the European Club Association but UEFA did not want to discuss it with the separate group of “elite” sides discussing the Pan European League (and that “elite” group includes three English sides) as they are aware they will get no more than a shrug and no long-term support. The second major counter proposal is a Chinese proposal from the Dalian Wanda Group proposes to open up the lucrative Chinese and Far Eastern media markets by extending the league to include Chinese and South American clubs. This has yet to be discussed by the "elite" sides as a group although the proposals have been presented to a number of them already on an individual basis. The proposals are very broad-based and lack detail - their selling point is significant additional income for the "elite".

If the proposal for a breakaway goes ahead, there is every likelihood that the big money from television, sponsorship etc. would go with a breakaway league. It would completely rupture the operations of UEFA and I would expect it would require national associations like the FA to restructure their leagues. Nobody wants this but it is the eventual consequence I would expect. Initially it could be that there is a single 16 team league with 2 or 3 EPL teams making the initial plunge. If I had to speculate, I would think (1) you might eventually see something like five or six EPL teams leave for two-tier pan European league - but it won't be based on the UEFA rankings; (2) the Premier League would be disbanded as an organisation; (3) the FA would restructure in to two 20 team divisions with lower leagues regionalised as they were many years ago; (4) FIFA would ban all players from the breakaway teams from International football - perhaps rescinding that position to stop FIFA breaking up as well - they don't want further issues but the troubles are not going to go away. I could also see many teams lose their professional status. I would think we are probably 10 years away from any significant move at this time.

I hold a reasonably strong view in terms of the need to restructure football in Europe in any case. For me an eventual a breakaway pan-European league would force the restructuring of many of the national leagues, possibly resulting in a British league with perhaps only a couple of professional tiers and then regionalised amateur leagues below that. Financially I do not see that so many pro sides can be sustained within the sport which, like it or not, will see more and more money going in to the highest levels of the game. Governments will ensure that grassroots sport get funding but everything in the middle (Southern, Northern, Conference, Division 2, Scottish Divisions 1-3, League of Wales will not get the funding needed to continue on any sort of professional basis. For me, clubs should already recognise this and put their efforts in to getting there finances in order to see if they can make it to a British professional league that will need to flourish without perhaps six sides that have gone down the pan-European route - and have gone for good. Clubs like Accrington Stanley will need to carry on as amateurs or face extinction (yet again).

The game has changed significantly and will continue to do so. Football at the highest level is big business and attracts the sponsorship it does because the sponsors wish to tap in to the disposable income of the fans and ride the back of the advertising that flows naturally from the success some clubs achieve. Long gone are the days of the cloth-capped, hobnailed-booted, chimney sweep making his way, rattle in hand, to cheer on his team at Anfield on a Saturday afternoon. I have explained that there will be changes, probably within the next 10 to 12 years, which will force the restructuring of all of the leagues in Europe and likely do away with the likes of UEFA. You will have the opportunity to see the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Juventus and the other major European sides play in week-on-week regular competition at The Emirates, Stamford Bridge etc.. You will have the opportunity to visit Milan, Barcelona, Monaco, etc. every couple of weeks to watch your team play - if they make the cut. If you want to don your cloth cap, have a pint of wallop with your chums before going off to the local match, perhaps one of the sides from the suburbs will have survived so you can go and watch them?

It was thought that a possible option might have resulted from a potential landmark decision that UEFA were to make in June or July - and that could facilitate the ownership of lower-tier sides by the more senior sides and then work as a feeder club. However – the need to make that decision was avoided.}

1.) 08 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 22:04:28
No worries if you chose not to/ don't want to/ already have but I haven't seen, but are Liverpool part of the 3 English clubs you mentioned?

{Ed002's Note - Not they are not.}

2.) 08 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 22:04:37
Guaranga ed,

Wasn't expecting such a detailed answer, but appreciate the effort you made to answer my question.

Brilliant answer, very informative. I personally feel the fan/ supporter is being marginalised year in year out. you see the prices for everything football related and just stand back and say wow.

I remember back to the 1990 World Cup in Italy where here in Ireland it truly was a fan based occasion, I just feel football has completely lost its soul and at some stage, along time away fans will turn their back.

Anyhows ed, rant over, thank you for your time.

Regards.

{Ed002's Note - To some extent the fans started to become marginalised when corporate boxes first became available, and then corporate hospitality, and ten medeia taking control of the scheduling that see fewer and fewer Saturday at three kick offs for the successful or leading clubs, and the sponsorship and the regular changes of kit and the new money etc.. I think it needs a reshape but the divide will see "elite" sides eventually move away and then the restructuring which will see, perhaps with less money, a return to a more stable basis for many. But it is hard to see how 92 professional leagues clubs can be sustained in England.}

3.) 08 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 22:07:20
Good post Niall.

Great reply ED2 thanks for your incredible knowledge mate.

4.) 08 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 22:07:48
That would be a very interesting scenario Ed02. One question I did have if such a breakaway league were to happen is the effect on the teams and associations in other continents ( South America, Africa, Asia etc. ) and national teams as well?

Appreciate the insight you give as always.

{Ed002's Note - I don't think that it would initially Prav but eventually all leagues need to ensure that they, and the teams, can sustain themselves.}

5.) 08 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 22:11:50
Cheers ed! Good read.

6.) 08 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 22:17:37
Thanks Ed.

Brilliant answer and its probably going to happen. but whether its for the best is another thing.

Will Brexit and all the rules and rights that go with it effect the way our teams will conduct transfers and contracts?

Eg. Would the Bosman ruling still apply here since we would not be have to abide by the Euro laws and courts?

{Ed002's Note - Bosman will still apply but it is not actually clear what would happen with work permits. There would certainly not be any overnight change but the eventual position would likely be a need for work permits and residence permits. In terms of existing EU citizens already working in the UK, there is no plan but I would think an amnesty would be the likely decision followed by a quota system of some type. A good question but no firm answer I am afraid.}

7.) 09 Jul 2017
08 Jul 2017 23:40:30
Nobody likes a kiss Teabag.

8.) 09 Jul 2017
09 Jul 2017 08:30:34
Thanks for the great post Ed02. Really detailed and interesting. My friends and I have often discussed how a pan European league just seemed like a natural evolution from the Champs League.
I'm not sure if it's what I want but I'll admit if Liverpool were involved the prospect of regular fixtures against the giants of European football is an exciting one.

9.) 09 Jul 2017
09 Jul 2017 02:52:06
Thanks Ed
Its the way the world seems at the moment, in constant state of flux.

The elite few get ever more pwerful and ruthless as they are in competition with each other,
Making decisions they know are immoral and harmful to the vast majority of lessers who have to survive on the relative crumbs from the elite tables

Anyway thanks for the reply.

{Ed002's Note - The Alphas and the Epsilons are the terms we use Dermot - I refer you to Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World".}

10.) 09 Jul 2017
09 Jul 2017 08:11:34
Very interesting answer.
With live streaming and IPTV readily available now, do you see the TV money start to decrease?

{Ed002's Note - Not at this time. The television money is part of a medium term PL contract that runs through the summer of 2019 and will be renegotiated within the next 9 months. In the longer term some clubs want to shut down illegal streams and control the rights themselves but they know that they will lose out on revenue. Therefore they will look to negotiate a half way house where they will get some options to stream. Both Arsenal and Liverpool have senior board members who are involved elsewhere in such a business elsewhere.}