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(single word yields best result)

25 Apr 2017 02:13:33
I believe that if we win 3 of our remaining 4 games we will make top 4 as we will end the season with 75 points.
We have Watford, Southampton away, West Ham and Borro, so if we don’t win 3 that is completely on us.
I will show why I believe this will be enough by looking at our rivals (Man City, Man Utd, Everton and Arsenal) remaining games and where that would be expected to put them.
Man City-
Man City still have Man Utd, Borro, Palace, Leicester, West Brom and Watford. I would not be surprised if they dropped points in 3 of these games. they have been very poor this season and I would expect them to drop points in 2 games from Man Utd, Palace and Leicester. Because they have been poor I would also expect them to drop points in 1 of their other games. This would leave Man City with, at most, 76 points and they currently have equal goal difference with us.
Man Utd-
Man Utd have City, Swansea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Southampton and Palace. I believe they would be likely to drop points in 2 games (at least) against City, Tottenham and Arsenal. I also believe they will drop points in at least 1 of their other remaining games as they will likely concentrate on the Europa league. This would leave them with, at most, 75 points, but their goal difference is currently less than ours.
Everton are currently 6 points behind us, having played the same number of games. As such, winning 3 of our remaining games would ensure we finish above them.
Arsenal still have to play Leicester, Tottenham, Man Utd, Southampton, Stoke, Sunderland and Everton. I would expect them to drop points in at least 2 of their games against Tottenham, Man Utd and Everton as well as 2 of their games against Leicester, Southampton, Stoke and Sunderland as they are falling apart. This would leave them with, at most, 70 points.
Obviously this is all conjecture but it does show why there is no need for everyone to freak out over the palace game as it is still very much possible that we make top 4.

Agree10 Disagree4

25 Apr 2017 07:14:42
Of course it's possible, the frustration is letting our control of the situation slip again.

25 Apr 2017 08:41:13
Youve said that Utd and Ars will drop more points than I think they will mate tbh. Were up against it let's face it.

25 Apr 2017 09:26:05
Don't trust Palace to get another point from anyone. They were playing with the fear of relegation vs us and Chelsea. They are safe now.

25 Apr 2017 09:42:06
We have to win all 4. that's that.

25 Apr 2017 10:05:51
Winning all 4 still might not be enough Supermane.

25 Apr 2017 10:14:54
It is all in our hands and that will give the best indication of where the squad currently stands. Ultimately it isn't a bad situation and if it doesn't work out then it is still a learning point for the summer.

25 Apr 2017 12:36:08
It can't be in our hands as if Man U and City win their games in hand they will be ahead of us and if Arsenal do they will be equal.

{Ed001's Note - City and United have to play each other, so they cannot win both win all their games in hand.}

25 Apr 2017 13:02:56
Despite that, Ed001, they can both get past us regardless of our results.

max we can get to is 78.

If City win their remaining 6 games they can get to 82 points, but even if they lose against Utd, they can still get to 79.

If Utd win their games, they can get to 81 points. If they lose to City, they can still get to 78 points and it would come down to goal difference.

A draw wouldn't be great for us as they could both get to 79/ 80 points with 1 draw and other wins.

So I'm going to say that the best result for us would be a City win, as that would put 4th back in our hands, goal difference notwithstanding.

{Ed001's Note - so, if United lose, it would be in our hands, as we can do something about the goal difference.}

25 Apr 2017 13:12:38
Yep, spot on, hence I want a City win, rather than a draw.

25 Apr 2017 13:14:55
BTW, don't discount Arsenal, who could still get to 78 too, albeit at the expense of Utd as they play each other. We could do with Spurs sorting them out when they play in a few weeks!

25 Apr 2017 13:22:55
So it's not entirely in our hands.

25 Apr 2017 15:25:20
United will beat City, who will have a couple of players missing, this will put a lot of pressure on us, City also, that's how I see thus night going .

25 Apr 2017 17:34:02
Utd will NOT survive that brutal schedule they have and will definitely drop points in at least 3 of their games, the same with Arsenal who have Stoke, Saints, Utd and Everton. If that happens and we win out, we get CL footie. It's as simple as that. Also, a City win will work just fine for me.

25 Apr 2017 17:35:23
How likely is it we will win the next 4 games, considering we have only done it something like twice in our history? In fact history would back city who have twice in the last decade won thier last 6 games in a row. It will no doubt go down to the last match of the season but i cannot say that i could back our players to hold their nerve in that situation. Well none of us can tell the future so we will just have to wait and see how it pans out.

Considering no one had us down for top 4 this season i guess we have overachived so heres to hoping they hold their nerve and play out their skins and bag that spot.



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