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14 May 2021 08:24:44
Morning all

Last nights result has given me a little bit of hope that we might be able to finish 4th if we win all our remaining games?

Can someone explain to me any scenario that we do take 9 points but still miss out on CL football?

Agree0 Disagree0

14 May 2021 09:44:15
If Chelsea beat Leicester and Villa and Leicester beat Spurs. It goes to goal difference between us and Leicester.

14 May 2021 09:48:10
Only scenario of that is losing out on goal difference to Leicester which is extremely unlikely.

Our maximum points is 69. Chelsea’s max points is 70 and Leicester’s is 72.

The beauty is we can get max points but Chelsea and Leicester or both can’t as they play each other.

If Leicester lose the max points they get is 69 and if Chelsea lose then the max they get is 67. If they draw then it’s Leicester 70 and Chelsea 68.

The tricky one will be if both us and Leicester finish on 69 points. At the moment they have a better goal difference than us of 1 goal. But for them to finish on 69 they will have to lose a game and we would need to win all 3 so our goal difference would definitely improve over them 3 and Leicester’s would decrease in the game they lose. It would all go down to how many they score in the game they win but they would still need to win by a bigger goal difference in that 1 game than what we do in our 3 combined. Which would be highly unlikely but not impossible with what we’ve seen this season.

14 May 2021 09:59:00
It would be unlikely not to qualify if we win all 9 points so that should be the focus.

How it could happen is we are 1 goal difference behind Leicester. If Leicester only lose to Chelsea by one goal then we are level on gd with us having 3 games left and them 1.

If the beat spurs and we win all our three remaining games then we will finnish level on points.

So if we win all our 3 remaining games, we have to at least win by one goal. That would make 3-0 a minimum they would have to beat spurs by.

Right now Leicester have more goals scored but if we win a couple 2-1 then they would need 4 minimum. If we win one by more than 1 goal they may need five.

In summary 9 points will do it. That should be everything to focus on and forget about the unlikely scenario. We have no control over it anyway.

14 May 2021 09:59:11
I think if Chelsea finish 5th and win the Champions league we would possibly miss out but i'm not sure. It's not very clear.

{Ed002's Note - Chelsea winning the Champions League is irrelevant.}

14 May 2021 10:00:08
Let’s just focus on winning our games. What will be will be. Beating United away is massive, I’m somewhere between elated and stunned. Huge lift for us all.

14 May 2021 10:00:20
If we win our remaining games, our chances are very good of getting top 4.

If Chelsea draw to or lose to Leicester, then if we win our remaining games then we get top 4. If they win, then it gets a little interesting and becomes dependent on Goal Difference.

If we win our next game in hand, then we go level on GD with Leicester. Now if Leicester lose to Chelsea and we win against Burnley, then at a very minimum, we will have a +2 GD on Leicester. Therefore Leicester will need to beat spurs on the last day of the season and better our scoreline by 2 goals. For example, if we beat palace 2-0, then they need to win 4-0.

So it’s in our hands but given we’ve failed to put a run together all season, it will be tough!

14 May 2021 10:00:40
Only if Leicester score a lot of goals in their next two matches.

14 May 2021 10:02:54
Leicester would need to make serious gains in GD against Tottenham if they lose to Chelsea (assuming we win all 3)

14 May 2021 10:03:08
There isn't one. 9 points gives us top 4 maybe even 3rd if Chelsea and Leicester draw each other and get minimal points.

14 May 2021 10:04:32
If leicester lose to chelsea, but beat spurs by a greater goal difference than we accumulate over 3 wins, likely needing to be at least 5.

14 May 2021 10:05:17
Leicester lose against Chelsea and win against villa by a margin large enough to beat our goal difference.

14 May 2021 10:21:43
MK! I'm surprised the CL qualification rules has gotten by you mate!

14 May 2021 10:24:36
Adam, the only way that 4th would lose the CL is if both the CL and EL winners were English and outside the top 4 (i. e. automatic CL qualification) .

The chance of that scenario disappeared with Arsenal's loss as Man Utd are confirmed in the top 4.

We have the option of having 5 teams in the CL but not 6. So if Chelsea won the CL and finished 5th, they would take up that 5th spot.

If Arsenal had got through and won the EL, Chelsea winning the CL and both finishing outside the top 4, they would have got the 4th and 5th places and 4th in the EPL would have lost out.

Right now, if we finish in the top 4, we have CL guaranteed.

14 May 2021 10:30:55
Leicester got Spurs last game mate not Villa.

14 May 2021 11:01:09
We could do with Leicester beating Chelsea and then we could probably get away with a win and a draw in our next two leaving it to the last game of the season. We would be level on points with Chelsea with at worst a 1 goal advantage. We would be home to Palace they are at Villa.

14 May 2021 11:35:33
Champs2020, I hope that is the worse case scenario but in the end, got to take care of business. If we do, we get top 4, IMO.

14 May 2021 11:53:45
Yep oilred agree👍.

14 May 2021 11:56:19
Faithinworks, much like the referees i can't keep up with rule changes nowadays so i just don't bother trying!

14 May 2021 12:04:22
Only happens if Chelsea beat Leicester + Leicester’s goal difference remains higher than ours.



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